I mentioned in my interview with sleep specialist, Soda Kuczkowski how the news outlets and even the CDC fail to stress the importance of staying healthy as part of the regiment to avoiding covid-19. I’m convinced that all of us will eventually be exposed to the virus so along with the standard preventative actions like keeping distance, wearing a mask and sanitizing hands, I make sure I follow a healthy routine of sleep, exercise and diet.
The healthy routine is my insurance policy for if I catch the virus because there’s a much greater chance I will survive with fewer complications. I think everyone should assume the worst - that they will contract Covid-19 and prepare by improving their health. Here’s what I do - I take a multivitamin, tablespoon of cod liver oil, vitamin D, vitamin C, zinc, I exercise daily, sleep at least 6 hours per night and use the neti-pot daily. My logic behind the neti-pot is simple, if nasal swabs are used to determine if people have Covid-19 then more than likely the nasal cavity is where the virus collects and should be cleansed daily.
My approach to my proactive health regiment is no different than the advice I give to business owners - consider the worst case scenario and do what’s in your control to prepare for it. It’s more important than ever to take this advice today because of all the uncertainty that covid-19 and the recession has brought upon us.
I have a client who has a store front for a call center at the Galleria. During the quarantine, they were forced to have the call center work from home. It worked so well, they decided not to renew their $2,000 per month lease. Walden Galleria called them up and offered to drop it to $1,000 per month, my client declined. Then the Galleria offered $500 per month, my client is still thinking about it. The owners of the Mall of America, the largest mall in the US, have missed the last three mortgage payments ($7 million per month) for it’s 1.4 billion loan. Malls are in trouble and that’s because many businesses are struggling to pay the rent. Starbuck is asking landlords for one years worth of rent forgiveness on its 9,000 company owned stores. Yelp claims that 41% of the businesses that closed their accounts on the review site have shuttered permanently. The Independent Restaurant Coalition predicts that 85% of non-chain eateries could permanently close.
The effects of Covid-19 and the recession have already started with restaurants, malls and office space. Eventually it will trickle down into other industries including yours. This is why I am advising business owners to be forecasting the next 6 months sales on a rolling basis and at least a 12 week rolling cash.
Typically, forecasting sales is not that difficult, however, with all of the uncertainty with Covid-19, I have yet to talk to a business owner who can confidently predict the next three months' sales, in fact, many struggle with predicting the next 30 days. Never in my thirty years have I seen anything like this. This is why it’s more important than ever to forecast!
When a business owner tells me they can’t predict next month’s sales, I ask them about the jobs they are performing today and if they have any future work that hasn’t been started yet (also known as backlog). Your backlog is your future sales. The next step is to contact all (if possible) or most of your customers (and even some vendors). Ask them how their business is doing. Your customers are a leading indicator for your business. If your customers are in industries that do well during a pandemic such as liquor stores, gaming companies or cleaning services then you know more business is coming, if they are in the restaurant, airline or hotel services industry, you know sales will be dropping dramatically. The more you talk directly to your customers, the more you can find out what is occurring “upstream,” and the more accurate your sales forecast will be. With a prediction of monthly sales, a forecasted P&L (profit and loss) statement can be created which will then allow for an easier way to predict cash flow.
Another reason why it’s important to talk to your customers is because businesses (including many of my clients) are having a harder time than ever finding new customers. Between all the time spent in quarantine and the strict rules on visitors post-quarantine, businesses that are not in pandemic friendly industries are struggling with even getting an opportunity to talk to a decision maker. This means that the best chance for future sales is with the current customer base which is why it’s more important than ever to give your customers the absolute best service. Everyone is feeling a bit lonely after the quarantine. Show your customers that you care just by calling them and finding out how they, their families and the business is doing. Make each and every customer feel appreciated.
Lastly, as the proverb goes, make your hay while the sun is shining so if you have opportunities for work, take it and find a way to get it done as quickly as you can. You have to assume that there will be another Covid-19 spike and the possibility of another quarantine so don’t haste, find a way to get it done now!
Focus on what's in your control. Communicate with your customers and track your backlog. Keep your finger on the financial pulse by forecasting sales, monthly P&L and cash flow. The strongest balance sheets win! You’re not competing with or should be comparing yourself to Warren Buffett, you only need to outlast your competitors and when we get through this pandemic and recession (and we will), there will be more business than you will know what to do with. Last piece of advice, start using neti-pot. :)
Hope you have a great day!!